Bar Italia #4/2025
Ten Sips of Italian Politics
Welcome to the fourth issue of Bar Italia!
Bar Italia is the newsletter for those interested in Italy and Italian politics but looking for a broader, less detailed overview than The Italian Compass. If you’re curious about why this newsletter is titled “Bar Italia” and how it’s structured, I invite you to read the introduction to the inaugural issue.
If you’d like to discuss any of the topics covered in this issue, feel free to reach out via email at info@politicaestera.net.
Hope you find it interesting!
And Buona Pasqua to those who are celebrating!
Dario
Bar Italia - #4
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is in Rome. The visit (April 18-19, 2025) follows the White House meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and U.S. President Donald Trump. Vance had a meeting with Meloni and will also meet with Deputy Prime Ministers Matteo Salvini and Antonio Tajani. His agenda includes participation in Easter celebrations and visits to significant religious sites. While a meeting with Pope Francis is not possible due to the pope's health condition, Vance will instead meet with the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin.
On April 9, the Italian government approved the Economic and Financial Document for 2026, the first document of the year concerning public finances and the planning of national economic policy. Following a legislative change, it will be renamed Documento di Finanza Pubblica (DFP - Public Finance Document). This document outlines the country’s financial situation and plans for managing public finances. Italy’s economy should grow by 0.6% in 2025, with growth expected to increase to 0.8% in 2026 and 2027. This is a lower growth forecast than what the government predicted last fall, which was 0.9% for this year and 1.1% for the next year.
There is mounting uncertainty regarding the actual numbers for Italy’s economic growth. ISTAT projects that tariffs and ongoing global economic uncertainty will negatively impact Italy’s GDP, reducing it by 0.2% in 2025. The situation is expected to worsen in 2026, with GDP projected to fall by 0.3%. These figures reflect growing concerns about the influence of external factors—particularly trade policies and market instability—on Italy’s business environment, and are even more pessimistic than those provided by the government just a few days before.
After the DFP release, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti expressed skepticism about the country’s growth forecast, humorously stating that accurately predicting economic outcomes in the current situation would make him a “wizard.” However, he also emphasized Italy's resilience in overcoming economic challenges and expressed optimism about the government’s recent achievements, including a positive credit rating upgrade. Indeed, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Italy’s rating to BBB+ from BBB, citing “improved economic, external, and monetary buffers and gradual progress in stabilizing public finances”. However, this is a tough period for the Lega leader. On top of all the challenges and political, economic and global troubles, his beloved Southampton has been relegated after a horrifying season in the English Premier League. A few weeks ago, addressing this issue, Giorgetti said “ My outbursts? Only when Southampton loses… I remain a fan, even if they lose every match.” I couldn’t agree more. I feel exactly the same when Napoli loses, and I already know I will be miserable in a few weeks when Napoli loses the Scudetto as Inter is heading toward another Triplete (after all, the natural state of a fan is bitter disappointment, as Nick Hornby wisely wrote years ago). Giorgetti’s words show how We Italians are dead serious about football (sorry… soccer).
The Italian Chamber of Deputies unanimously approved a resolution concerning the country’s participation in international missions for 2024 and 2025, with 267 votes in favor and none opposed—signaling broad, bipartisan political consensus. The resolution authorizes Italy’s involvement in new international missions planned for 2025 and extends peace and stabilization operations initiated in 2024. A key provision includes the establishment of “Forze ad alta e altissima prontezza operativa” (High and Very High Readiness Forces), aimed at strengthening Italy’s military preparedness for international deployments. The resolution also incorporates elements proposed by opposition parties, reflecting collaborative efforts on a topic seen as crucial for Italy’s international projection and security.
Fincantieri and Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems have launched a strategic partnership to enhance the Philippine Navy’s submarine capabilities by providing advanced U212 NFS submarines. This will strengthen regional defense and promote long-term industrial cooperation.
While President Meloni was in Washington D.C., in Rome Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli saw Louis L. Bono, the Senior Bureau Official for the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. Their discussions focused on the current situation in the Eurasian region, with a significant part of the meeting dedicated to the Caucasus, particularly the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan (Bono was the Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations until a few months ago). Last week, Cirielli also met Turkmenistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmet Gurbanov, in Rome for the conference “Dialogue, Trust, Peace, Security in the World” organized by the Italian Institute for Asia (ISIA) and the Embassy of Turkmenistan. Cirielli visited Ashgabat recently and is emerging as a key figure in shaping Italy’s engagement with Central Asia—an often overlooked but increasingly important dimension of the current government’s foreign policy (see The Italian Compass #3).
Discussions concerning candidates for local elections continue to create trouble among allies. Tensions have emerged between Senate Speaker Ignazio La Russa and Forza Italia leader Antonio Tajani regarding the potential candidacy of Maurizio Lupi for the mayor of Milan, with Tajani advocating for a civic candidate rather than a political one to enhance the center-right’s chances of winning in Milan. The last time the center-right won in Milan was in 2006, with Letizia Moratti (at the time technically running as an independent/civic candidate).
President Sergio Mattarella raised six objections to the new “Morandi bill” highlighting concerns about its vague criteria for beneficiaries, exclusion of certain incidents, potential discrimination against children from non-marital relationships, prioritization issues for beneficiaries, limitations on recognizing stable cohabiting partners, and excessive discretion left to implementing decrees amid insufficient funding.
Gianni Chiodi, the former president (governor) of Abruzzo, was acquitted after an 11-year legal battle stemming from accusations related to spending caps in private clinics, which he claims severely damaged his personal and professional life despite being innocent. This is a recurrent and common problem in Italy’s public life, and one that is yet to be addressed convincingly.
Public Opinion Watch
The latest SWG poll (April 14) shows that Fratelli d’Italia (FdI – Brothers of Italy) continues to lead with 30%, a slight decrease from last week (-0.2%). The Partito Democratico (PD) experienced a modest drop of 0.3%, landing at 22.0%. Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) gained 0.3%, reaching 12.5%. Lega is stable at 8.7% respectively. Forza Italia also saw a slight decline, standing at 8.8% (down from 8.9%). Verdi e Sinistra (Green and Left) gained 0.2%, rising to 6.4%. As for centrist parties, Renzi’s Italia Viva gained 0.2%, reaching 2.7%, while Carlo Calenda’s Azione is down by 0.2% (3.6%). Notably, voter uncertainty slightly decreased, with 33% of respondents still undecided, down from 34% the previous week.
See also…
Politica Estera - Deep Dive - The Race for Villa Firenze: Who Will Be Italy’s Next Ambassador to D.C.?
Politica Estera - Scriptorium Italiae #2/2025
Politica Estera - Bar Italia - #3/2025